Closing Recap

Monday, August 25, 2025

U.S. stocks slumped in the final minutes of trading to end the day in negative territory but still held on to the bulk of Friday’s gains, as the S&P and Nasdaq dipped slightly and the Dow fell from record highs. Ahead of NVDA’s earnings results this Wednesday 8/27, optimism runs high as Mag 7 mega cap tech names saw increased strength with gains in AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA as well as other tech names like NFLX and ORCL. The XLK and XLC are among two of the top 4 S&P sector gainers this year (XLI, XLU also up double digit %) as optimism in AI growth has spurred buying in technology throughout 2025. Modest stock market moves today following a strong rally to close out the trading week on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a possible rate cut at the central bank's upcoming meeting. Expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's September meeting now stand at 86.2%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Of the 11 major S&P 500 (SPX) sectors on Monday, Communication Services (XLC) and Energy (XLE), while Consumer Staples (XLP) was the biggest laggard (hurt by food names), along with Utility (XLU), Healthcare (XLV) and Industrials (XLI)weakness. Still coming this week, plenty of potential market catalysts which include earnings results from the biggest chip player in AI space NVIDIA (NVDA) on Wednesday evening 8/28, results from several software companies (MDB, NCNO, OKTA, BILL, CRWD, SNOW, ADSK, S), storage/hardware BOX, HPQ, NTAP, NTNX, PSTG, DELL) and retailers (ULTA, BBY, DG, DKS, OLLI, VSCO, FIVE, GES, URBN), as well as a new round of important economic data including the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, core PCE on Friday and GDP on Thursday. In stock news today, furniture retailers fell (ARHS, W, RH) after Trump said late Friday that the U.S. is launching a “major” tariff investigation into imported furniture, with a tariff rate to be set within abought 50 days. Small caps fell nearly 1% and the Dow -0.77% the biggest decliners.

• U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index declined -2.7 points to -1.8 in August. The index bounced 13.6 points to 0.9 in July after improving to -12.7 in June and -15.3 in May following the April plunge to -35.8 which is the lowest since May 2020's -47.3. It has been in contraction in 6 of the 8 months this year, and in expansion in only 3 months since May 2022.

• Oil prices jumped with WTI crude rising $1.14 or 1.80% to settle at $64.80 per barrel while Brent crude gained $1.07 or 1.58% to settle at $68.80 per barrel. U.S. natural gas futures end the session little changed with steady LNG feed gas flows and slightly hotter midday temperature forecasts curbing some of the early selling; Nymex natural gas for September delivery slips 0.1% to $2.696/mmBtu ahead of Wednesday expiry.
• Treasury yields edged slightly higher most of the morning before ending little changed. The Euro slides to lows of day, down about -0.8% to 1.1623 vs. the Buck (off earlier highs around 1.172), while the buck gains further against the Japanese yen in a late day for the greenback. All eyes on the GDP report on Thursday and the PCE Inflation report on Friday morning.

• In Apparel Retailers: AEO was downgraded to Underperform at Bank America saying they see a longer path to a more normalized earnings profile in this environment and cut F25/F26 EPS estimates by 8%/30% to $0.65/$0.95 to reflect the impact of higher tariffs and lower Aerie sales. ANF announced a multi-year partnership naming with the NFL, as Abercrombie & Fitch named an Official NFL Fashion Partner.
• In Autos: Porsche (POAHY) has abandoned plans to produce high-performance batteries at its Cellforce subsidiary and expects to cut 200 of nearly 300 jobs at the unit, Reuters reported. The pension trust of Mercedes-Benz will sell off its roughly $346M shareholding, a 3.8% stake, in Nissan Motor (NSANY), a spokesperson for the German carmaker said on Monday.
• In Casino & Gaming: the sector was stronger as UBS noted in a morning note that “the game is changing in Macau, as hotel room capacity growth ceases to be the main driver of market share.” UBS said changes in gaming table allocation, and premium product and service positioning, attractive player incentives and a premium-focused marketing strategy have emerged as the key drivers of market share after COVID- 19. UBS upgraded Wynn Macau from Neutral to a Buy rating and raise Wynn Macau and MGM China tgts.

• In Materials: shares of copper producers FCX, SCCO, TECK as well as potash companies CF, NTR, MOS saw late morning gains after the United States Geological Survey (USGS) proposes including Copper among critical minerals and proposes potash as critical mineral.
• In Oil E&P Sector: VTLE confirmed a Reuters report from Friday that it would be acquired by CRGY in an all-stock deal valued at $3.1B including debt as Vital shareholders will receive 1.9062 shares of Crescent common stock for each share held, representing a value of $18.95 per share. Reuters reported the owners of the EPIC Crude pipeline are exploring a sale, with any deal likely to value the energy infrastructure at around $3 billion including debt. EPIC Midstream, controlled by investment firm ARES owns around 45% of the company which holds EPIC Crude. The rest is held equally by FANG and KNTK.
• Solar stocks were among the big winners on Friday following Few Chairman Powell view that rates could be cut at the September meeting. Oppenheimer noted this morning, several of their names have direct exposures to rates. On the residential solar market, RUN's cost of capital is a key driver of value capture for its distributed energy portfolio. They also see HASI and AMRC as key beneficiaries on medium-sized projects, while CSIQ, CWEN and ORA are direct beneficiaries for utility scale renewable projects. At the same time, they see electricity price increases coupled with potential rate cuts supporting higher equipment prices, notably for FSLR, ARRY, SHLS, ENPH, and SEDG. See potential for the recovery in renewables names to pick up momentum as investors consider the impact of lower rates.

• AXGN shares fell after saying the FDA extended by three months its review of the proposed transition of the company's Avance nerve graft from a tissue product to an approved biologic; the FDA now anticipates providing feedback on product labeling in November 2025.
• COYA said the FDA approved its NDA to study its drug, COYA 302, as a potential treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in a mid-stage study.
• DYN was upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, raise tgt to $35 from 431 saying they have increased conviction in Dyne's DYNE-251 registrational cohort readout in late 2025.
• MRNA, BNTX, PFE shares fell after report on report the Trump administration will move to pull the COVID vaccine off the U.S. market “within months,” the Daily Beast reported. https://tinyurl.com/5b7v8n52
• ONC said it entered into an agreement to sell its royalty rights on the worldwide sales, excluding China, of Amgen's IMDELLTRA for up to $950M to RPRXUnder the terms of the agreement, BeOne will receive an upfront payment of $885M, with option to sell remaining royalties in 12 months for up to $65M.
• RPRX announced that it has acquired a royalty interest in AMGN Imdelltra, a first-in-class DLL3 targeting bispecific T-cell engager, from BeOne Medicines for $885M upfront. The agreement includes an option for BeOne to sell additional Imdelltra royalties to Royalty Pharma for up to $65Mwithin the next 12 months.
• SCPH to be acquired by MNKD for $5.35 per share, in deal valued at $303M, accelerating revenue growth and emerging as a patient-centric leader in cardiometabolic and lung diseases.
• VALN shares tumbled after saying they will no longer be able to sell its chikungunya vaccine in the U.S. after reports linked the vaccine to adverse effects. The FDA suspended the license for Ixchiq following four reports of serious adverse events that were consistent with the chikungunya-like illness.

• In Machinery & Equipment: DA Davidson downgraded SYM to Neutral from Buy (though raise tgt to $47 from $35) and reduces its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for FY26, citing nearer-term revenue growth deceleration and the stock's current valuation. Davidson meanwhile upgraded TTC to Buy from Neutral (tgt to $93 from $76) saying late-spring sales appear to have come in quite strong, and the firm sees other data points over the last few weeks that point to better times ahead.

• In Media: President Donald Trump berated CMCSA’s NBC and DIS ABC as “two of the worst and most biased networks in history,” adding he’d support the FCC in revoking licenses to their television stations. Citizen’s research reiterate its Market Outperform, $110 PT on ROKU saying with several catalysts ahead for platform revenue in 2026, the firm is increasingly confident in Roku's ability to drive upside to 2026 platform revenue expectations. The Financial Times reported this weekend that SPOT has indicated it will be raises its prices for customers as it invests in new features.
• In Semis: INTC shares active after the U.S. confirmed it would make a $8.9B investment in Intel which is in addition to the $2.2B in CHIPS grants Intel has received to date, making for a total investment of $11.1B; the gov’t will purchase~ 433M share at $20.47/share and will receive a 5Y warrant to buy an additional 5%. AEHR shares bounced early as announced it has received additional follow-on orders for 6 Sonoma ultra-high-power packaged part burn-in systems from its lead production AI processor customer.
• In Memory sector: Memory stocks active (MU, SSNLF) after Digitimes reported Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are reportedly pulling back on investments in advanced NAND flash memory as weak demand and rising costs push them to concentrate on higher-margin businesses such as DRAM and advanced packaging.

• In Optical Sector: FN upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan and raise tgt to $345 from $318 saying the post-earnings pullback in the shares provides an attractive entry point.
• In Security Software: OKTA was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist and raise tgt to $125 from $100, ahead of fiscal Q2 earnings due on Tuesday as believes Okta is approaching an inflection point as headwinds from seat count pressure and go-to-market changes are seen abating in the second half of FY26. SentinelOne (S) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG and removed the firm's price target on the shares as sees increasing competitive pressure from larger platform vendors in the security space and thinks Street estimates for the second half of FY26 and FY27 are too high.