Closing Recap

Monday, March 02, 2026

After U.S. stock futures tumbled more than 1% overnight, and down even more for the tech heavy Nasdaq futures, market resiliency continues to astound as major averages recovered all of its losses to turn flat by early afternoon and into positive territory heading into the final hour of trading. Wall Street shook off news of the U.S. and Israel joint strikes on Iran over the weekend, jolting global markets and renewing inflationary concerns with oil prices jumping over 8%.  The jump in oil came following the attacks on Iran and subsequent retaliation from Tehran as investors fretted that the fighting would disrupt shipments through the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Markets bounced from the open until 3:00 pm, helped by expectations if the war is quick/doesn’t drag on, the inflation hit to economies would be temporary. However, in the final hour, reports from Iranian media reported Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran is to set any ship trying to pass on fire. That headline pulled markets off the highs as tensions in the Middle East remain high. Biggest moves on the day related to the Iran news were weakness in airlines stocks, cruise lines and other transports given the spike in oil; defense contractors (NOC, LMT) and drone stocks (RCAT, ONDS) were big winners as well as energy stocks (XOM, CVX) on the oil spike. Bitcoin prices found some footing rising around 5% back near $69K lifting some names (MSTR, COIN); optical stocks COHR, LITE advanced on strategic partnerships with NVDA. Outside of macro/Iran, it was relatively quiet.

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 52.4 in February (consensus 51.8) vs 52.6 in January, prices paid index 70.5 in February (consensus 60.0) vs 59.0 in January, employment index 48.8 in February vs 48.1 January and ISM U.S. manufacturing new orders index 55.8 in February vs 57.1 in January.

• March silver prices fell -$4.40 or 4.8% to settle at $88.28 an ounce (off overnight highs $95.86). April gold prices rose $63.70 or 1.19% to settle at $5,311.60 an ounce (off overnight highs $5,434.10) in response to concerns of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The US dollar was broadly higher against rival currencies, including a 1% move vs the euro which dipped under 1.17.
• U.S. Treasury yields shot higher after military strikes in Iran by the U.S. and Israel, followed by counterstrikes by Tehran across the Middle East, sparked a jump in oil and gas prices and raised fears about escalating inflation. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 11.1 bps to 3.49% and was on track for its biggest daily gain since June 6. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed 8.6 bps to 4.048% and was best daily rise since June.

• Chinese automakers (BYDDF, NIO, LI, XPEV) broadly recorded a sharp drop in sales in February as waned during the Lunar New Year month. BYD Corp. (BYDDF) sold a total of 190,190 vehicles in February, down 41% from a year earlier. That included 79,539 fully electric cars, a 36% decline from the previous year. Xpeng (XPEV) deliveries fell 50% to 15,256 units. Li Auto (LI) sold 26,421 units, 158 more than the same period last year, while Xiaomi, a relatively new entrant, said it sold more than 20,000 EVs in February. NIO was the month's standout performer, posting a 58% jump in sales to 20,797 units
• In Casinos & Gaming: WYNN, MLCO, LVS shares active after Macau's gaming bureau reported February gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 4.5% year-over-year to 20.627B patacas. DKNG announces plans to launch new super app, branded DraftKings Sports & Casino, bringing together sportsbook, predictions, casino and lottery into one seamless, integrated experience.
• Cruise sector: NCLH reported mixed quarterly earnings (EPS beat/revs missed), while the cruise sector saw a sharp decline in share prices (CCL, RCL, VIK) given the conflict in the Middle East sending oil and energy prices surging. Donald Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran could last for weeks and called on the nation’s leaders to capitulate

• Liquid natural gas (LNG sector): shares of companies leveraged to the LNG market such as VG, LNG, WMB, NEXT, TTE, EQT saw strength after QatarEnergy has halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products due to military attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, it said on Monday. Separately, VG posted better-than-expected Q4 earnings, though 2026 guidance missed analysts' forecasts.
• In Utilities: AES shares slumped after agreeing to be bought for $15 per share in cash, below the Friday closing price of $17.28 by a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT in a deal valued at $33.4 billion.
• In Energy sector research: Goldman Sachs added COP and LOAR to the US Conviction List, while removing HII, MSGE and VLO. For COP, believe the oil major is on the cusp of a positive free cash flow inflection over the next three years as it transitions from a long period of heavy project investment to boost its oil reserves into a new period of 'investment harvesting' characterized by major projects coming online and capex diminishing.
• In Energy stock news: CRC shares rose on results and after saying it expects 12% y/y production growth, averaging 152–157 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), supported by four operated drilling rigs and reports 2025 free cash flow of $543M, compared to $355M last year; EQNR said it and its Partners have discovered oil near the Snorre field in the North Sea and plan a "rapid and cost effective" development of the new reserves.

• Alt managers/Credit: The sector remains under pressure (ARES, BX, CG, OWLetc.) on credit exposure to software companies that have been impacted by AI concerns, while the broader financial/banking sector fell on Friday with the proximate cause of this latest sell off seems to be the collapse of UK mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS) amid allegations of fraud which sent JEF shares down 12% in the last two days because they have a modest exposure, Oppenheimer noted. Barclay’s downgraded OWL to EW from Overweight (PT to $11 from $15) and upgrade STEP to Overweight from EW (PT to $55 from $67) as revised ests and PTs across business development company (BDC) sector saying they think it remains too early to determine the real Ai impact.

• ASND said the FDA approved, under their accelerated approval program, Yuviwel, a treatment for the genetic condition that causes dwarfism. The approval is for children 2 years and older with achondroplasia with open epiphyses.
• EYPT announced the first patient dosed in both Phase 3 COMO and CAPRI global clinical trials of DURAVYU for the treatment of diabetic macular edeme.
• NTLA said the FDA has removed a clinical hold on the late-stage clinical trial for its experimental gene therapy for a heart disease. Last year, the company said the FDA paused its two main late-stage trials for the gene-editing treatment, nexiguran ziclumeran, after a patient died from severe liver complications.
• NVO was downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs following the disappointing result for the REDEFINE-4 trial, as the firm cut their expectations for CagriSema/Cagri mono across diabetes and obesity.
• PFE was upgraded to buy from Hold at Argus with $35 tgt, positive on the company's recent additions to its GLP-1 pipeline along with its robust programs in oncology and hematology, saying it has greater confidence in Pfizer's ability to grow the top and bottom lines in post-2028 period.
• PULM announces termination of prior planned merger and continues pursuit of alternative merger opportunities.
• QURE shares tumbled after saying the FDA informed the company that data from an early- to mid-stage trial of its gene therapy AMT-130 for Huntington's disease would not support a marketing application for the treatment. QURE said received final minutes from a meeting held on January 30.
• UTHR announced that its long-term pivotal phase 3 ADVANCE OUTCOMES study met its primary endpoint, with ralinepag reducing the risk of a clinical worsening event by 55% compared with placebo in patients with PAH (hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI [0.33-0.62]; p<0.0001).

• Animal Health sector: ZTS signed a deal to buy NEOG’s animal-genomics business for $160M, saying the acquisition bolsters its strategy to drive future livestock innovation through genomics. Neogen said it plans to use proceeds from the sale to pare its debt load.

• Defense stocks GD, LHX, RTX, LMT, NOC shares rose given the conflict this weekend in the Middle East between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran’s counter attacks vs many Middle East countries. Drone makers KTOS, DPRO, RCAT, ONDS, UMAC also rise largely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have increased demand for military and surveillance technologies. PLTR was another defense related name that saw strength today. The conflict raises concerns about airspace security and logistics, making unmanned systems more valuable for both military and commercial applications.
• AVAV shares were up initially (rising around 18% with drone sector) before tumbling (down as much as -20%) after Raymond James triple downgraded to Underperform from Strong Buy saying the Space Force announced that it is putting the Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource program back up for competition. This was the company's largest program of record at about $1.4B of value, and AeroVironment had $2.8B of total backlog and contends this may erase $1-$1.4B of that total.
• Shipping stocks were in focus as Iran appears to have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country. While that could cause oil prices to spike, it could be good news for shipping stocks, including FRO, DHT, STNG, TNK, NAT and other names, though Barron’s notes many of these names have already logged big gains in 2026 thus far to reflect the possibility of this outcome https://tinyurl.com/mpemc8v8

• Steel sector: Wells Fargo raised price target on U.S. steelmakers as expects elevated price levels through at least Trump's administration. Wells raises PT on STLD to $210 from $190, NUE to $194 from $184 and CMC to $80 from $79 saying increasingly self‑sufficient U.S. steel industry, now shielded from imports by 50% tariffs, is positioned to maintain elevated domestic prices for several years. Raises 2026/27 hot-rolled coil forecast to $950 per short ton vs $875 and $900 per short ton vs $800, respectively.
• In Metals & Mining: HBM said it will buy shares of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company it does not already own for $1.48 billion. Each ASCU shareholder will receive 0.242 of a Hudbay share for each share held, representing deal value of C$9.35 per ASCU common share

• In Media: NFLX was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan with $120 PT after a prior period of restriction saying they believe NFLX remains a healthy organic growth story, driven by a combination of strong content, global subscriber growth, continued pricing power, & an early stage/under-monetized Ad tier. PSKY announced plans to issue $47B of new shares at $16.02 (19% premium to the stock’s closing price on Friday).
• Software: CRWD was upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at Piper after shares have slid -21% YTD given Ai-driven bear cases that have subsumed the narrative in Security, a move Piper sees as well overdone for a best-in-class Security platform with a durable track record of innovation and execution. KVYO announces $500M share repurchase program with $100M accelerated share repurchase. TWLO was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen and raised tgt to $160 from $125 saying they see AI agents becoming a bigger part of everyday lives and says Twilio is a key enabler of AI-driven business-to-consumer engagements.
• Optical sector: NVDA announces strategic partnership with LITE to develop State-of-the-art Optics technology as Nvidia is investing $2B in Lumentum to support R&D, future capacity and operations. NVDA also announces a strategic partnership with COHR to develop Optics technology to scale next-generation data center architecture as Nvidia is investing $2B in Coherent to advance Frontier of advanced Optics technologies.
• Memory sector (MU): Keybanc noted inSpectrum released its memory contract pricing for the month of February. 8Gb DDR4 DRAM pricing was +7.7% M/m and +187% q/q, and 8Gb DDR5 DRAM pricing was +4.2% M/m and +128% q/q, while 512Gb NAND pricing was +12.5% M/m and +207% q/ q. KEYB views the February pricing results as positive for DRAM and NAND.